Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB dip to $800 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5db9c1c2e7a4f3912e219fa496aebb78725d1e2dd255965198b153e1ca25a4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 39c | 3,076$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.32 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 17c | 2,437$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.16 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 67c | 991.72$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 53c | 800$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.8 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 10c | 766$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…c97ebacked No | 59c | 525$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 22c | 153.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 47c | 101.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…5f5ebacked Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…38cebacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed No | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 61.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…0507backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…6839backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…bf67backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB dip to $800 in December?this page
- Will BNB dip to $500 in December?No won
- Will BNB dip to $600 in December?No won
- Will BNB dip to $700 in December?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,050 in December?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,150 in December?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,250 in December?No won
- Will BNB reach $850 in December?Yes won
- Will BNB reach $950 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.