Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dbe9fec84f66b4bd8588babdeeec323aafac259e7e951840bcc29c8b5dc9b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 390.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 253$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 226.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 210.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 55c | 199.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 197.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 56c | 186.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 175.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 172.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 166.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 15c | 102.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 67.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 66.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 57.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 45c | 55.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 44c | 52.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 44c | 40.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 57c | 34.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 76c | 23.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…8c1fbacked Yes | 47c | 23.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.