Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ddb6a388f9c9cfa11f467b46404b4796f08d48a576a758ccd53cb431f439869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 11c | 570.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 4c | 459.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 9c | 257.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 209.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 144.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 141.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 17c | 137.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 25c | 136.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 24c | 134.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 130.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 28c | 118.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 11c | 116.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 29c | 109.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 100.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 12c | 94.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 76.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 73c | 60.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 27c | 53.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 28c | 50.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…9061backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 47.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 26c | 38.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 75c | 31.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 78c | 20.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 69c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.