Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf37c0313f097656c2ca768e90a807b13598571b1285a00cf12501b1945dff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 397.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 341.94$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 27c | 325.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 300.46$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 273.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 225.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 24c | 194.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 176.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 54c | 175.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 80c | 150.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 54c | 118.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 43c | 103.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 47c | 100.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 48c | 98.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 86.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 67.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 52c | 65.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 64.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 28c | 64.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 19c | 63.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 37c | 61.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 43c | 56.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 53.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 46.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 35c | 41.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 41.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 79c | 35.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1357backed Yes | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 28.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 69c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 73c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 79c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…76f3backed No | 66c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 79c | 17.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.