Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9346108d6ac6a6aa3def360e64107744399e84e3caf52e28ea9ff9b8b14501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 517.94$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 457.78$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 58c | 301.35$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 240.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 63c | 238.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.02 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 237.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 186.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 186.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 79c | 174.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 37c | 173.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 65c | 161.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 159.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 157.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 79c | 152.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 151.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 59c | 118.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 110.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 50c | 104.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 35c | 100.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 99.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 65c | 98.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 97.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 53c | 95.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 92.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 91.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 87.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…ee1abacked Yes | 72c | 81.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 80.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 35c | 79.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 36c | 78.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 33c | 78.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 73.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 70.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 73c | 66.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 64.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 71c | 62.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…ef23backed Yes | 30c | 61.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 60c | 58.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 54c | 57.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 71c | 56.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 55.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 68c | 55.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…cb41backed Yes | 37c | 50.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 24c | 48.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 68c | 45.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 65c | 42.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 68c | 42.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 47c | 42.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 52c | 41.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 66c | 40.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 40.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 69c | 39.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 57c | 38.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 66c | 34.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 63c | 31.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…37b0backed No | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 71c | 31.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 54c | 27.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 53c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 26.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 74c | 25.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 58c | 24.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 51c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 46c | 23.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 23.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 67c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 45c | 22.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 66c | 22.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 71c | 19.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 79c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 70c | 15.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.