Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ddbdf464b02a0e9e8c51d7a538314db4e2c29b08f4c79df28337e0fa447ae91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 1,631$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 3c | 571.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.33 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 69c | 330$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 68c | 330$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 73c | 330$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 77c | 330$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 79c | 330$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 292.5$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 266.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 233.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 23c | 221.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 80c | 180.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…8c51backed Yes | 13c | 149.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +274.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 137.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 136.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 106.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 94.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 29c | 77.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 43c | 60.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 53.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 50.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 69c | 47.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 41c | 46.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 52c | 39.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 62c | 39.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 37.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 34.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 34c | 32.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 69c | 31.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 39c | 30.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 44c | 29.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 62c | 25.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 59c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 23.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 18.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.