Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389ce6b5a334faa2f0b75afa1374cb7b4fc9402b48bcefda673b077e6c4da6d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4a6…0053backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes | 50c | 634.05$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 302$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 290.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 30c | 210.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 199.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 22c | 199$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 172$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 161.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 60c | 135.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 31c | 122.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 117.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 30c | 108.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 92.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 55c | 90.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 24c | 89.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 41c | 86.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 77.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 34c | 67.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 52c | 60.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 68c | 60.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 29c | 51.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…2ac7backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 39c | 47.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 38.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 38.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 36.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 57c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.