Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de9444edd9c30a9e55924c26ca9fa87f6d9418461ecae759b754b77895f5536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 43c | 595$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.54 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 267.85$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 247.28$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 47c | 231.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 47c | 203.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 172.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 137.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 136.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 127.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 120.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 112.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 110.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 99.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…696abacked Yes | 13c | 86.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked Yes | 49c | 80.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 54c | 63.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 42c | 60.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed No | 80c | 60.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 47c | 60.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 56c | 55.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 50.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 59c | 50.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 49.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 48.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 45.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 65c | 44.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 40c | 44.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 39.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 37.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 36.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 55c | 34.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 69c | 34.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 42c | 31.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 31.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 52c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 54c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 59c | 22.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…107fbacked No | 60c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 20.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 55c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 55c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 57c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 67c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.