Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Mackenzie McDonald vs Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dee078db3e88dc974b5672d5e6cc2e8077943ef060130774d86496bb6e29369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof McDonald, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed McDonald | 9c | 7,346$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.69 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked McDonald | 5c | 6,551$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.03 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked McDonald | 5c | 6,448$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked McDonald | 5c | 2,515$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed McDonald | 7c | 2,249$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked McDonald | 6c | 2,101$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked McDonald | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked McDonald | 2c | 1,522$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked McDonald | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed McDonald | 5c | 1,086$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed McDonald | 8c | 654$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed McDonald | 4c | 513.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed McDonald | 8c | 501.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed McDonald | 4c | 487.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked McDonald | 6c | 449.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed McDonald | 6c | 389.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed McDonald | 6c | 303$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed McDonald | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked McDonald | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Mackenzie McDonald vs Alex de Minaurthis page
- McDonald vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- McDonald vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: McDonald vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)Minaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs McDonald (+2.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.