Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df357f7d65017d43550f16bf32eaeac7c40380e816e4fb16077d1888df05918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 450.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 5c | 299.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 298.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 289.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 264.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1108backed Yes | 9c | 254.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 236.91$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 24c | 210.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 12c | 191.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 23c | 176.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 158.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 7c | 156.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 21c | 136.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 131.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 118.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 112.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 100.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…3058backed Yes | 12c | 96.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 14c | 94.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a59…5b52backed Yes | 14c | 92.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…8787backed Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 88.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 19c | 85.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 14c | 75.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 68.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 19c | 54.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…3070backed Yes | 21c | 51.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 77c | 48.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 38.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.