Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52a9d93e601f4a85c1c5a250f6a1ff189856a5336d8c67cb8fae4f7ae0b783f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 78c | 789.33$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 343.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 39c | 212.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 155.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…35f2backed Yes | 73c | 137.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 137.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 130.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 126$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 109.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 106.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 36c | 99.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 98.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 23c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 48c | 82.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 77.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 70c | 73.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 72.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 69.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 52c | 67.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 32c | 64.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 66c | 60.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 38c | 59.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 58.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 42c | 49.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…cd78backed No | 42c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 45.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed Yes | 72c | 44.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 68c | 43.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 42.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 40.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 37.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 36.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 56c | 35.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 33.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 33.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 31.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…8787backed No | 70c | 29.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 29.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 29.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 43c | 28.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 73c | 27.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 45c | 27.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 71c | 27.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 74c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 20.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…49d7backed Yes | 56c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 75c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 63c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 56c | 17.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 76c | 17.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 68c | 16.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 71c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed No | 78c | 12.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.