Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc62f858f1e581fc7cd1d1103e1bd8c62018fd9afe91f1532fa94a483fdd247ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 225.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 8c | 213.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 171.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 20c | 129.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 129.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 31c | 126$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 19c | 115.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 107.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 25c | 107.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 97.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 96.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 82.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 73.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 72.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed No | 77c | 64.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 61.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 72c | 59.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 71c | 50.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 49.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 29c | 48.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 47.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 44.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 38c | 41.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 39.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f2…6bdfbacked No | 71c | 39.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 34c | 38.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 36.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…172ebacked Yes | 51c | 35.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 74c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed Yes | 34c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 33.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 75c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 73c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 75c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.