Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e0ebd87e882951d25307554cd2e3456f3c55fd982862a0ce1d317ab671a7a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 45c | 1,934$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.04 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Up | 61c | 1,885$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.9 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Up | 37c | 1,533$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Down | 22c | 797.37$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 24c | 700$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 61c | 535.94$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.41 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…022cbacked Down | 5c | 245.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…1da5backed Up | 16c | 150.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 21c | 142.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 30c | 142.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 44c | 136.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…0aafbacked Up | 16c | 125.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…4e58backed Down | 66c | 105$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…9b34backed Up | 12c | 101.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +748.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…aa05backed Up | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 22c | 86.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…aa13backed Up | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 46c | 62.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…6783backed Down | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…1b16backed Up | 76c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Down | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.