NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1913e8e934ab95df0aaeb5aad50f8c2f59b675ff9916231dfc7ecd16952db8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Red Wings, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Penguins | 71c | 42,866$30,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,431.23 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Red Wings | 29c | 13,324$3,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,864.07 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Red Wings | 29c | 8,492$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.72 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e6d4backed Red Wings | 29c | 6,900$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…0784backed Red Wings | 29c | 4,640$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Red Wings | 29c | 4,291$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.41 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Penguins | 71c | 3,675$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.75 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Red Wings | 29c | 2,681$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.41 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Red Wings | 29c | 2,331$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.92 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings | 29c | 846.05$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.36 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Red Wings | 29c | 495.21$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Red Wings | 5c | 329.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Red Wings | 28c | 234.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Red Wings | 30c | 209.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Red Wings | 30c | 191.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Penguins | 80c | 189.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Red Wings | 29c | 164.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Red Wings | 18c | 164.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 70c | 124.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Red Wings | 29c | 91.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 69c | 55.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Red Wings | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…9341backed Red Wings | 29c | 42.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…f541backed Red Wings | 29c | 41.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 70c | 37.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Penguins | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Penguins | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…c5a4backed Penguins | 72c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed Penguins | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…6399backed Penguins | 72c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba3…0e28backed Penguins | 72c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.