NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80c802d1734763f2cd62ea74cd23b9c2a87b16b18184a0de490d9ba817d06a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 30,509$14,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,889.88 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 17,500$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,499.99 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 12,989$6,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,364.61 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 3,200$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,000$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 564$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.83 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 56c | 350.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 57c | 336.82$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 9c | 274.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 126.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 120.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 41c | 117.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 36c | 110.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 107.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Over | 48c | 95.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 57c | 93.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 88.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 71c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 52c | 55.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 52c | 54.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 43c | 34.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 48c | 33.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…aa4dbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…54c6backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.