Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Gaeul Jang vs Natsuki Yoshimoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2cc61af93612c803c8a13fd63471b339351350146ce500b58ba25855a546c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuki Yoshimotoof Gaeul Jang, Natsuki Yoshimoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 65c | 7,347$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.43 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Gaeul Jang | 30c | 5,875$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.17 | 91 | 18.7%17 W · 74 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Gaeul Jang | 52c | 1,598$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.69 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 875$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.25 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Gaeul Jang | 23c | 875$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 669.67$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gaeul Jang | 38c | 485.29$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.41 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 450$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Gaeul Jang | 23c | 450$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 63c | 378.39$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Gaeul Jang | 32c | 337$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 66c | 270$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Gaeul Jang | 32c | 253.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Gaeul Jang | 22c | 195.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 147.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Gaeul Jang | 54c | 130.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Gaeul Jang | 27c | 110.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 76c | 63.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 43c | 54.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Gaeul Jang | 69c | 38.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Gaeul Jang | 52c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 72c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.