Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 20 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e367110a93fcbf992b0dcb6ff131b6b8f364b7ffd6f37484e707a7d357d5a70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 2,830$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 50c | 1,138$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.84 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 8c | 833.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…7ce7backed Yes | 57c | 750$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cca…65cabacked No | 62c | 145.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed No | 53c | 114.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 72.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…7465backed No | 72c | 52.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…1266backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…d83dbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…0773backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…3281backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707d…10a0backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…f531backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f5…8adfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…84a5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43b…a814backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 20 2026?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of April 20 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of April 20 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of April 20 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of April 20 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of April 20 2026?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of April 20 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.