Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica beat Juventus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e459fddaa00dbf990ae40b3239a5dab5984422fabd53e4418e6410ca7f0c4ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 28c | 5,186$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,733.71 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 3,164$2,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.34 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 28c | 1,792$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.14 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…aac6backed No | 59c | 1,696$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 52c | 898.4$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.5 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 879.86$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.5 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 72c | 807.3$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked No | 48c | 626.26$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.53 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…5d79backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 233$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 16c | 209.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 166$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 72c | 135.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…fcdfbacked No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…f87dbacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 58c | 63.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…f67ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked No | 72c | 19.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…1de1backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica beat Juventus?this page
- Will Juventus beat Benfica?No won
- Will the match between Juventus and Benfica end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.