Champions League · resolved market
Will Juventus beat Benfica?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6d9d54ef3b7079eab885fa6b93fe3c9daf972058a0ce50f3918fe2cada2397a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,010$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.27 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…f360backed Yes | 6c | 823.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 79c | 503.29$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 56c | 494.31$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…1289backed Yes | 12c | 431.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +326%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…207ebacked Yes | 18c | 328.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked Yes | 16c | 293.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 53c | 242.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 55c | 223.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc0…cc95backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…79f5backed Yes | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…6d30backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…f87dbacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 38c | 63.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64b…c3cdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9d86backed No | 56c | 41.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…f45abacked Yes | 44c | 40.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdd…bb7abacked No | 57c | 40.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…40e9backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…3bdcbacked Yes | 44c | 39.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb754…bd7abacked Yes | 44c | 39.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…17febacked No | 56c | 36.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…1ecdbacked No | 56c | 34.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…3e49backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…424fbacked No | 56c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…7c63backed Yes | 44c | 32.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…3808backed Yes | 44c | 31.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…4fd9backed Yes | 44c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…c291backed No | 56c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…bb0cbacked Yes | 44c | 28.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe98…c7afbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…7e05backed No | 57c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…7479backed Yes | 43c | 25.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…98b9backed Yes | 44c | 25.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…3099backed Yes | 43c | 24.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 56c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 28cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…beedbacked No | 56c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fc…a203backed No | 57c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juventus beat Benfica?this page
- Will Benfica beat Juventus?Yes won
- Will the match between Juventus and Benfica end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.