Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e5b6518d94d46b4e6794f4bfe2a403d7b99ff8793d434f8a2d4a19d09fd944b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 547.92$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 422.37$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 54c | 412.12$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 239$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 195.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 19c | 142.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 130.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 126.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 115.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 97.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 30c | 79.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 41c | 78.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 27c | 77.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 47c | 65.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 44c | 52.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 50.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…7d49backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 46c | 45.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 77c | 43.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 42.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 41.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 50c | 40.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 39.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 48c | 33.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 53c | 29.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 27.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…a5b7backed No | 44c | 24.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…bc6dbacked No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 76c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.