College Football · resolved market
Spread: UCF (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7e9dee15012b9c85780f467091cc2f806975fca4db23f62f388dc50ab4d8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCFof UCF, West Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked UCF | 49c | 112,766$55,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,566.85 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed West Virginia | 51c | 112,397$57,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,381.35 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed UCF | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…cd99backed West Virginia | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked UCF | 48c | 4,862$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked West Virginia | 51c | 4,496$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.45 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed UCF | 51c | 4,141$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked West Virginia | 56c | 3,559$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.34 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed West Virginia | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed UCF | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed UCF | 51c | 187$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked UCF | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked West Virginia | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed UCF | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed West Virginia | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked UCF | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked West Virginia | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…8357backed West Virginia | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UCF (-7.5)this page
- West Virginia vs. UCFUCF won
- West Virginia vs. UCF: O/U 46.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.