College Football · resolved market
West Virginia vs. UCF
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7813e6097cf65db51ce647fe499b490e187ebc967770c72f28c273b47eeec390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCFof West Virginia, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed West Virginia | 28c | 22,177$6,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,294.17 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked UCF | 71c | 8,000$5,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed UCF | 74c | 6,300$4,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.28 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed West Virginia | 26c | 6,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.95 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed UCF | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCF | 71c | 4,084$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.48 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked West Virginia | 28c | 3,987$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.66 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked UCF | 75c | 3,303$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.16 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked West Virginia | 31c | 2,595$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.45 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…2360backed West Virginia | 28c | 1,622$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…acc7backed UCF | 74c | 1,622$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9ea1backed UCF | 73c | 1,501$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457c…fa41backed West Virginia | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked West Virginia | 28c | 1,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed West Virginia | 17c | 1,381$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked UCF | 71c | 1,107$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.13 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed UCF | 72c | 999.96$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed UCF | 71c | 774.99$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.36 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed West Virginia | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…b28fbacked UCF | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…52c2backed West Virginia | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed UCF | 69c | 497.42$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.2 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UCF | 72c | 439.24$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked UCF | 72c | 427.49$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed UCF | 69c | 427.39$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed UCF | 70c | 251$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked West Virginia | 31c | 250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed West Virginia | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed West Virginia | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed UCF | 70c | 193$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed West Virginia | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed West Virginia | 31c | 159$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…0be3backed West Virginia | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked West Virginia | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked UCF | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed UCF | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5b…0cfcbacked UCF | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked UCF | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed UCF | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed West Virginia | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed West Virginia | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked West Virginia | 26c | 41.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…3f15backed UCF | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked UCF | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…8964backed UCF | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed UCF | 69c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…8357backed UCF | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- West Virginia vs. UCFthis page
- Spread: UCF (-7.5)UCF won
- West Virginia vs. UCF: O/U 46.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.