Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8f6ce803ed016c8d7c8dfb6e6444b174746f1daa00a9f164bca77f41d0c9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 35c | 799.79$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.03 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 5c | 759.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 613.89$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.1 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 573.16$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 26c | 528.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 75c | 368$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 303.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 299.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 234.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 211$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 13c | 209.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 191 | 32.5%62 W · 129 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 11c | 172.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 168$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 24c | 162.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 144.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 133.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 128.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 122.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed Yes | 28c | 113.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 14c | 108.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 101.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 18c | 95.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 75.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 16c | 72.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 75c | 68.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed Yes | 45c | 55.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 45c | 52.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 76c | 47.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 46.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 33c | 45.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 77c | 36.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 34.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked No | 65c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…997cbacked No | 63c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 79c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.