Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f71f5be5fcb1a2d6bb4760a59b150ad77faf3c27d48ec40fc738b158390639f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 0c | 18,440$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 13c | 1,429$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.61 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 76c | 619.11$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 45c | 445.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 67c | 300.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 58c | 243$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 20c | 220.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 204.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 196.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 191.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 177.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 6c | 173.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 45c | 168.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 133.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 114.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 42c | 114.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 111.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 103$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6845backed No | 50c | 99.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 97.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 68c | 91.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 89.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 64c | 89.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 70c | 83.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 82.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 35c | 77.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 60c | 69.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 61.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 39c | 60.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 18c | 59.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 57.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 503 | 50.5%254 W · 249 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 49c | 44.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 53c | 44.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 41.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 40c | 41.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 71c | 38.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 51c | 36.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c2…52c2backed Yes | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 31.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 424 | 47.9%203 W · 221 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 49c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…7435backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 65c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…e163backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked No | 61c | 25.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 74c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 67c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 63c | 16.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.