Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e9ff7edaf1919c0943579eb99a312a30c56b8f9a02dba8428e81287537a89a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 31c | 1,232$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.61 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed Yes | 15c | 485.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…781fbacked No | 7c | 330.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked No | 4c | 272.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…7483backed Yes | 16c | 125.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 112.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 43c | 62.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 43.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked Yes | 38c | 43.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 71c | 27.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 75c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4a46…9cfebacked Yes | 46c | 24.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…86cdbacked Yes | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.