MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea3c8a8ba18fff27f2fb830f67799b0bfa9eb7fca2ec2804485e16ed5cdbb74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 69c | 3,652$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 2,612$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 1,471$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.67 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 24c | 1,350$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over | 61c | 1,246$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.79 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 30c | 780.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 395.34$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 29c | 372.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 69c | 300.05$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 25c | 242.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 71c | 228.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 70c | 140.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 52c | 68.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 54c | 54.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 28c | 45.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 68c | 38.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 71c | 24.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.