MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ece36592355fcb85620be9f7581f9bc40c81fd145e8ffaa9d751db78a91ec40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 1,613$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.38 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 1,304$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.21 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 1,032$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 966$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 722.58$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.66 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 584.98$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.19 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…4341backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 299.61$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c6…5db4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 151.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 110.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…3487backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 76.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…a245backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 61.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 56.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,299 | 56.7%737 W · 562 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Twins vs. PhilliesTwins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.