Tennis · resolved market
ITF Toyama: Sae Noguchi vs Rinko Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed4208b6f29fba4b5989a87e7925334bcd163a6d8f5502e10e47aa7408470ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sae Noguchiof Sae Noguchi, Rinko Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Rinko Matsuda | 3c | 10,522$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.75 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sae Noguchi | 52c | 804.17$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.01 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rinko Matsuda | 7c | 757.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Rinko Matsuda | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sae Noguchi | 47c | 754.72$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sae Noguchi | 76c | 517.03$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Rinko Matsuda | 25c | 402.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sae Noguchi | 79c | 202.63$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Rinko Matsuda | 26c | 194.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Rinko Matsuda | 17c | 143.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Rinko Matsuda | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sae Noguchi | 78c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.