Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed46bc0a75a41e27bb7b36563119b919b03f6c63297bc8cb84f169f69ba2913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 641.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 43c | 458.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed No | 64c | 455.32$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 62c | 429.31$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 50c | 355.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 328.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 33c | 322.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 57c | 287.04$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 284.69$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 57c | 201.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 177.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 48c | 167.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 25c | 157.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 34c | 154.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 46c | 117.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 113.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 110.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 102.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 99.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 43c | 98.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 62c | 85.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 49c | 85.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 84.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 49c | 81.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 80.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 66.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 56c | 63.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 61.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed Yes | 47c | 60.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 58.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 32c | 57.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 53c | 53.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 48.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 46.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 34c | 37.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 37.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 68c | 35.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 57c | 34.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 54c | 31.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 53c | 29.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes | 39c | 28.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 37c | 28.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 51c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 25.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…7242backed Yes | 42c | 25.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 53c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02db…0c90backed No | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a0…c890backed No | 69c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.