Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Liverpool?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef2497ce07946c6946e430f2b4c2f76aeefc3cd9b35553331f0bc8d219abaa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 24c | 2,992$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 77c | 2,341$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.89 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…e553backed Yes | 26c | 1,388$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 78c | 1,004$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 74c | 972.5$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.3 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 23c | 639.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 73c | 478$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 22c | 458.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 22c | 350$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 247 | 52.2%129 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…a0b7backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…c190backed Yes | 22c | 155.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 21c | 82.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 78c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…bcbcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…5bd5backed No | 80c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Liverpool?this page
- Will Liverpool beat Bayer Leverkusen?Yes won
- Will the match between Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.