Fifa International · resolved market
Will Armenia vs. Hungary end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5efcdfc2e427256f7286baeb1748fba4e832bce4b73656acb45f1985e8610e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 13c | 2,334$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…f19abacked Yes | 21c | 583.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 448.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 20c | 376.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 330.53$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 21c | 274.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…78f5backed Yes | 17c | 261.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…227bbacked Yes | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 242.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked No | 78c | 226$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd559…ff47backed Yes | 22c | 224$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…fb8dbacked No | 78c | 205$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 21c | 189.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 22c | 184.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 172.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 21c | 147.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 28.2%51 W · 130 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 78c | 95.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 22c | 78.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…5257backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…501ebacked Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 259 | 54.8%142 W · 117 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…d29dbacked No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…3ea3backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armenia vs. Hungary end in a draw?this page
- Will Armenia win on 2025-11-13?No won
- Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.