Fifa International · resolved market
Will Armenia win on 2025-11-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe803f23da3c563292fe7dd305bdb3ecab3bb75ab9ce168f8ac6faf6d43900cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Yes | 13c | 15,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 13c | 11,690$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.69 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 14c | 7,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 13c | 6,810$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.57 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed Yes | 14c | 4,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…faedbacked Yes | 14c | 3,779$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 13c | 2,738$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.33 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…f198backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,929$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 14c | 365$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…593dbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed Yes | 16c | 235$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 16c | 176.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 169 | 25.4%43 W · 126 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…e601backed Yes | 14c | 167.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 149.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…78f5backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 15c | 126.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 16c | 119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…17abbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armenia win on 2025-11-13?this page
- Will Armenia vs. Hungary end in a draw?No won
- Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.