Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f05c5be984740364247e9866ca2fac8b2f44862782e08738f06bb8500df33a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 27,687$11,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,794.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 57c | 27,117$15,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,576.97 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 58c | 904$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 28c | 550.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.02 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 389.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 48c | 373.04$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 51c | 348.04$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 63c | 305$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 65c | 295.38$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 261.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 21c | 252.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 57c | 230.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7513…110dbacked Yes | 55c | 138.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 46c | 109.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d83…ac87backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 60c | 88.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…51e2backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 26c | 78.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 78.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…8d66backed Yes | 49c | 74.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed Yes | 52c | 73.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 58c | 69.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…df55backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.