Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x868c703d09b54b8b954ea630866cbf30f5bd5d307c502ce8585007355021cff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 8c | 20,055$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.43 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…bcfdbacked Yes | 13c | 4,695$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 11c | 4,400$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 3,850$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,540$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 2,550$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 11c | 2,177$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.47 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,438$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 12c | 999.84$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 12c | 999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 12c | 322.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 11c | 281.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 12c | 219.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9b7dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.