Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Lin Zhu vs Marina Stakusic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f11aa2fc91c2b8d7a1a756508181499b2db486a7c70f169a4e91b7b5db24db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stakusicof Zhu, Stakusic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stakusic | 40c | 1,710$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Zhu | 18c | 1,704$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.33 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stakusic | 64c | 538.52$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zhu | 59c | 537.22$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Stakusic | 35c | 340.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.34 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Zhu | 46c | 334.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Zhu | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Zhu | 33c | 280$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Zhu | 33c | 208.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Zhu | 33c | 176$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Stakusic | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Stakusic | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stakusic | 53c | 122.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Stakusic | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Zhu | 18c | 105.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…0becbacked Stakusic | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Zhu | 36c | 99.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…e9f4backed Stakusic | 58c | 72.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Zhu | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Zhu | 45c | 61.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Stakusic | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Zhu | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Zhu | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Stakusic | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Zhu | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Zhu | 64c | 15.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Lin Zhu vs Marina Stakusicthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Zhu vs StakusicStakusic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.