Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1a16fa4dd225c3b09e0abc098b119a75d4cf1de59b84b87e1fd0ae4ab37d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 1,634$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 24c | 527.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 463.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 265.7$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 249.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 21c | 199.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 9c | 147.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 142.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 78c | 139$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 19c | 128.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 126.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 126.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 117.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 79c | 113$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 110.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 94.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 94.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 21c | 90.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 78.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 26c | 77.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 74.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 32c | 72.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 76c | 67.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 19c | 66.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 64.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 23c | 61.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 78c | 31.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 33c | 31.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 69c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 80c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 67c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 77c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.