Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13873ecbf4e68065dc0b9583bf5b8b4a42e8e3496aad6e015ec38e9aeaa7ab61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 785.69$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 70c | 430.05$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 24c | 396.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 32c | 385.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 26c | 239.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 153.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…22e6backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 148.63$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 138$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 124.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 116.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 113.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 109.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 108.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 100.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 27c | 99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 94.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 25c | 84.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 75.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 34c | 62.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 55.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 53.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes | 36c | 41.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…2761backed No | 66c | 41.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 38.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 29c | 36.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 33.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 69c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 68c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…31b8backed No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd6…7453backed No | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 80c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 77c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.