College Football · resolved market
Spread: Boise State (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f400a2e925bca53c294cf97b7ec22062d30dfb1121f7ddaac71f70b97d8ec3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Boise State, UNLV Runnin'
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Boise State | 47c | 4,987$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.01 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed UNLV Runnin' | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UNLV Runnin' | 45c | 1,577$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.04 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Boise State | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UNLV Runnin' | 53c | 1,403$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.36 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…0e64backed Boise State | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed UNLV Runnin' | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Boise State | 46c | 164$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UNLV Runnin' | 54c | 154$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Boise State | 47c | 102.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Boise State | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed UNLV Runnin' | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Boise State | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked UNLV Runnin' | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boise State (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Boise State (-3.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-3.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-4.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-5.5)Boise State won
- UNLV Runnin' vs. Boise StateBoise State won
- UNLV Runnin' vs. Boise State: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.