College Football · resolved market
Spread: Boise State (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39209f92db84e2eb2193536776192680eaa8dfc50ee8e05457038978e5469f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Boise State, UNLV Runnin'
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb123…0a15backed UNLV Runnin' | 47c | 2,107$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.29 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Boise State | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed UNLV Runnin' | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Boise State | 52c | 1,944$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.6 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Boise State | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.89 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UNLV Runnin' | 47c | 993.4$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.4 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed UNLV Runnin' | 49c | 390$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Boise State | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked UNLV Runnin' | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UNLV Runnin' | 46c | 203.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed UNLV Runnin' | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed UNLV Runnin' | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Boise State | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked UNLV Runnin' | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Boise State | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…789fbacked Boise State | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1d…e003backed Boise State | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked UNLV Runnin' | 49c | 47.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boise State (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Boise State (-3.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-3.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-5.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-6.5)Boise State won
- UNLV Runnin' vs. Boise StateBoise State won
- UNLV Runnin' vs. Boise State: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.