Us Politics · resolved market
25% steel tariff in effect before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f47c8f01161b40b3ac055b775671889e154cf084c39d0db67c47398486706eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 7c | 4,428$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.67 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 4,084$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 5c | 2,159$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…8408backed No | 8c | 1,213$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 4c | 810$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…2362backed No | 4c | 765.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +114%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 2c | 710.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 7c | 666.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 617$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed No | 4c | 530.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 6c | 462.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed No | 6c | 410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 379.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 283.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…6777backed No | 5c | 230.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 8c | 208.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…62efbacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.