World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4e5d3230edb345023587af6b0895e8a6d20f5462926df89c9d99ca39eca5de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 2,224$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.44 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 447.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.38 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 359.4$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 242.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 209.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 178.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 154.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 153.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 132.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 50c | 120.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 92.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 89.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 84.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 41c | 68.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +123%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 44c | 57.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 54.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 53.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 43c | 38.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 61c | 38.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 37.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 35.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 47c | 31.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 72c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 29.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 27.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 41c | 26.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 45c | 24.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 61c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.