Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f55fc7de6c300b68dd20e99cd7a880ae3915cf1a2bbf3913579ff13cbef24a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 21c | 6,146$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.32 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 22c | 3,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 74c | 2,954$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.21 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 78c | 2,814$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 1,458$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.11 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 66c | 607.04$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked No | 23c | 565.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 48c | 540$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 46c | 443.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 72c | 371.45$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 73c | 342.42$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 52c | 330$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 40c | 267$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Yes | 53c | 256.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2232backed No | 38c | 245.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 38c | 235.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…37e2backed Yes | 49c | 216.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 50c | 207$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 60c | 148.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 62c | 115.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 56c | 108.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748b…988cbacked No | 51c | 98.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 61c | 97.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 65c | 87.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 59c | 63.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 50c | 41.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 50c | 32.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 37c | 30.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…a5f1backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…12acbacked Yes | 43c | 24.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.