Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8f3a3878915dd8f7488d5b46594cf86b9442ba13abcb8758b5f9c5561bb255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 3c | 1,306$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 3c | 565.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 8c | 380.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 356.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 261.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 77c | 175.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 149.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 79c | 119.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 107.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 40c | 103.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 97.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 76c | 90.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 88.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 87.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 79.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 29c | 73.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 17c | 73.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 72.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 29c | 69.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 24c | 67.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 62.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 60.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 56.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 32c | 52.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 50.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 48.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 48.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 66c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 43.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 42.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked No | 63c | 39.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 67c | 31.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 36c | 28.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed No | 69c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed Yes | 41c | 27.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 70c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 71c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 71c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 71c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…b476backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 61c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…edfdbacked No | 74c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.