Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09241ebcfebebd69b65ae55b574a653edd0ed2946497b60f2b5bf034a117e938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabae…508ebacked Yes | 51c | 187.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 150.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 125.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 118.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 56c | 109.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 105.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 60c | 96.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 66c | 96.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 43c | 95.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 18c | 90.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 89.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 80c | 82.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 82.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 73.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked No | 53c | 71.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed No | 56c | 67.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 61c | 67.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 62.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked No | 29c | 57.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 59c | 56.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 55.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 60c | 54.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 49c | 49.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 61c | 47.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 44.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 43.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 43.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 44c | 43.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 34c | 39.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 39.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes | 40c | 38.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9a…1152backed Yes | 53c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 37.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 63c | 36.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 37c | 36.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 38c | 34.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 32.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 45c | 29.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 68c | 28.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…1193backed Yes | 54c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 27.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 60c | 25.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 41c | 25.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 62c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 42c | 24.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 59c | 22.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…ff99backed No | 60c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 58c | 22.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 59c | 21.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 61c | 21.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 61c | 21.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked Yes | 68c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 59c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7d…ce86backed Yes | 67c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 68c | 15.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.