Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f928dade4a3fe36cdc9e041a6ccbc4acfeb8e9aa622d365bef9f44a9bf2c331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,965 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 71c | 3,300$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.98 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 2,123$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.89 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 1,897$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.41 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 28c | 1,286$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 73c | 1,220$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 1,117$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.01 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 850.55$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Yes | 29c | 776.72$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 652.1$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 56c | 463.4$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.11 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 30c | 424.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 28c | 341.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 28c | 333.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 12c | 245.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 31c | 241.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Yes | 28c | 232.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 31c | 204.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d2…2f04backed Yes | 30c | 148.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 25c | 142.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…d64abacked No | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +95%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 31c | 91.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 70c | 87.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 44c | 71.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 37c | 69.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…ae92backed No | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 61.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 60.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 58.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 44c | 56.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Yes | 53c | 56.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 50c | 55.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 28c | 54.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…cfc3backed No | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Yes | 56c | 41.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…33febacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked No | 70c | 35.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 69c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…8ca1backed No | 50c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-20?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.