Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb21805e69d76917c721b19aa400b00fdf1404fc5a54b608d491a2b859e10e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,512 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 6,025$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,862$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 2,031$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.78 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 1,314$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.53 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Yes | 29c | 1,017$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 32c | 946.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.07 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 38c | 853.09$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 669.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.57 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Yes | 23c | 562$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.74 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 44c | 452.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.25 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 45c | 450$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked No | 56c | 258.93$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 229.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d2…2f04backed Yes | 46c | 223.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 212$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 21c | 182.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…901ebacked Yes | 46c | 154.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 73c | 140.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 31c | 128.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 115.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 28c | 105.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 43c | 102.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…13a3backed No | 16c | 96.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 91.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 45c | 88.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…d64abacked Yes | 26c | 82.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +95%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 55c | 78.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…f21dbacked No | 57c | 72.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 51c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 43c | 64.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…5da8backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 55c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 29c | 61.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 58.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed No | 57c | 52.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 79c | 48.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 54c | 48.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 54c | 44.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 36.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 77c | 36.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 46c | 32.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…50c2backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 23.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 57c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 56c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked No | 74c | 17.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Yes | 77c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…28e5backed No | 72c | 16.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed No | 76c | 15.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked No | 74c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-20?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.