Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50580343c2cfcd901fabf5e9396ab30bffcbece1b1e3a1441f390230802bb19f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,608 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 2,308$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 71c | 2,019$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.46 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 27c | 1,117$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.46 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 63c | 1,063$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 1,012$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 77c | 781$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 41c | 776.5$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.22 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…abc5backed Yes | 58c | 770.69$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 59c | 476.94$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.51 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 18c | 250.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.27 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 23c | 177.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 24c | 174$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…d323backed Yes | 26c | 163.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…9a2bbacked No | 74c | 163.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 75c | 126.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 123.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Yes | 25c | 118.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 42c | 104.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 75c | 98.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 50c | 93.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 56c | 90.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Yes | 66c | 88.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 71.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…86e1backed Yes | 79c | 68.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 63.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 62.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 61.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 38c | 60.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…f21dbacked No | 65c | 56.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…7be6backed No | 22c | 50.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 63c | 33.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 66c | 32.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 75c | 28.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 78c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 74c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-20?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.