Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f98b6d413170947425825c2aa929e61a5bb0bd40d096f857909a8a457e2379b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed Yes | 65c | 374.59$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.66 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…7b1dbacked Yes | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 57c | 285$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.85 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 40c | 249.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 8c | 182.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 41c | 172.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…2be5backed No | 66c | 165$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 56c | 106.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…d2abbacked Yes | 69c | 104.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 80c | 89.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed No | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…f305backed No | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…cd99backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 52c | 38.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…88c8backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…6a7dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…c959backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa893…9580backed Yes | 77c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or below on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 83°F or higher on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.