MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc181f77121de03411c1d3734346e131a7b3f2288afa61f5bf0ec016416b580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof New York Mets, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 4,850$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 49c | 4,819$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 31c | 938.66$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 845.13$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 48c | 392$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 324.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed New York Mets | 33c | 129.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed New York Mets | 47c | 103.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 78.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 69.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 48.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 27c | 46.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked New York Mets | 34c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.