MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed51565556fd292d7ee62b58ba2e70a047a4ea9ffe4cbc077b46e8ac6c1901db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 22,519$12,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,288.21 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 46c | 21,817$10,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,031.23 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 3,475$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.96 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 3,077$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.23 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 55c | 990.91$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.91 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 56c | 981.57$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.89 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 974$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 44c | 933.2$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.61 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 360$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 55c | 360$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 55c | 320$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 44c | 248.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 46c | 205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 54c | 181.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 68c | 104.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 54c | 84.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 44c | 73.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 62c | 64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ba…4390backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 43c | 42.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.